Predicted tides for April 2011 compared to People's 100

 The following tidbits of information come from Tides and Water Levels produced by the NOAA, which is quite an excellent tutorial.  Perhaps attorneys who prosecuted this case should read it, so they know a little of the science behind tides.

• Tides are based on the lunar day, which is 24 hours and 50 minutes.  That's why you can't go to the San Francisco Bay the same time every day to observe a high tide or low tide -- you have to plan ahead.
• The moon has the largest affect on the tides, but the sun does play a role (especially at the vernal and autumnal equinoxes and winter and summer solstices).
• Neap tides coincide with the 1st Quarter and Last Quarter phases of the lunar cycle.
• Spring tides coincide with the New Moon and Full Moon phases.
• Spring tides not only produce higher high tides, but also lower low tides, creating a greater tidal range.
• The Bay has semi diurnal tides, with two unequal high tides (HH and H) and two unequal low tides (LL and L) each lunar day.

The NOAA publishes its tidal predictions based on the very predictable lunar and solar cycles -- meteorological factors (rain, snow, drought) are not used in the predictions because they cannot be predicted.  The meteorological effects on the tides are measured by NOAA and are represented in the preliminary and verified water level data -- they just are not included in predictions.  

The water level for the high tide on the morning of April 13, 2011 was predicted to reach 5.11' at 8:06 a.m. and hold steady through 8:18 a.m., dropping to only 5.10 at 8:24 a.m.  In the chart, the Accoustc data shows that the actual water level reached 5.16' at 8:06 a.m. and held mostly level, as 8.15' is only 1/8 of an inch lower than 5.16, but did peak at 5.17' at 8:30 a.m.  

Station Date            Time   Pred 6   Acoustc  Backup
DCP#:                                   1             1           2
Units:                                  Feet     Feet      Feet
Data%:  MLLW        Local  100.00  100.00  100.00  
Maximum:                             5.21    5.17      5.18  
Minimum:                              0.13    0.23    0.24  
------- -------- ----- ------- ------- ------- 

9414863 20110413 07:54    5.09    5.08    5.09

9414863 20110413 08:00    5.10    5.12    5.13

9414863 20110413 08:06    5.11    5.16    5.16

9414863 20110413 08:12    5.11    5.15    5.16

9414863 20110413 08:18    5.11    5.15    5.16

9414863 20110413 08:24    5.10    5.16    5.17

9414863 20110413 08:30    5.09    5.17    5.18

9414863 20110413 08:36    5.08    5.15    5.16

9414863 20110413 08:42    5.06    5.12    5.14

9414863 20110413 08:48    5.03    5.11    5.12

Here are the water levels critical to this case:

5.45' MHW (average of all H and HH tides)
5.88' water level from HH tide on morning of April 13, 2003
6.05' MHHW (average of only the HH tides)
6.39' water level for People's 100

As you can see, 5.11' (predicted) and 5.17' (Accoustc) are not anywhere near the 6.39' of People's 100; they aren't even close to the 6.05' MHHW; and even fall short of the 5.45' MHW.  So just how common is it to have high tides this low?  The answer is in this monthly plot for April 2011.  I included the last several days of March to get a more complete lunar cycle, as taken from calendar-365.com, which has a lot of other very interesting information, too.

You can see from the plot that only 5 HH tides of the whole period equal or exceed 6.39', and they are boxed in red.  So the real question is, Is it more likely for high tides to be at or below 5.11' or at or above 6.39' in the month of April?  

During the month of April 2011, there are 58 high tides.  We must include all high tides to determine the frequency of the 6.39' tide of People's 100 because Distaso did so in this broad statement in his Closing Argument: Remember that area where he came ashore is a tidal flat, so at high tide it's covered with water all the way.  

Only 20/58 or 34% of high tides in April 2011 are predicted to reach or exceed 5.45' MHW

Only 7/58 or 12% of high tides in April 2011 are predicted to reach or exceed 6.05' MHHW

Only 5/58 or 9% of high tides in April 2011 are predicted to reach or exceed 6.39' People's 100

26/58 or 45% of high tides in April 2011 are predicted to be at or below the 5.11' tide predicted for April 13, 2011

That plainly means that more than 5 times as many high tides in April 2011 are at or lower than 5.11' than at or above 6.39'.  That makes a 5.11' or lower tide 5 times more common than a 6.39' or higher tide.  The tide on April 1, 2011 actually peaked at 5.17', and the photos I posted yesterday prove that the site is definitely not under water at this water level.  

Lest you think April 2011 would be much different from April 2003, here is the verified water level vs.  predicted water level plot for April 2003.  The red + indicates the verified water level, and the blue line the predicted.  As you can see, only 4 of the high tides were predicted to reach 6.39' or higher (a 5th one made it with the help of local meteorological factors); and only 6 to reach 6.05' or higher.  Moreover, the storm surge that the State talked about so much didn't even raise the water level to the 6.05'.  

And here is the verified water level vs. Predicted plot for April 2004, showing the same pattern.

People's 100 was taken on January 10, 2004.  The month of January does traditionally produce higher tides than the month of April.  That's because January follows the winter solstice when the sun has the greatest effect on the tides, and April follows the vernal equinox, when the sun has the least effect.  Following are plots for January 2003, January 2004, and January 2011.

The Conner Recovery site simply is not "under water" at every high tide, and People's 100 does not represent what the site looked like on April 13, 2003.   

More evidence that People's 100 is a blatant lie - April 13, 2011

In his Opening Statement, Rick Distaso told the Jury:

Here's the location where Conner Peterson's body was found. There is a tidal flat. If you are at high tide, it's covered in water.  At low tide it's flat ground. You are going to see this is all tidal flat. There is a walking path here. There is nowhere to drive down. You can't drive a car down to this particular location. You can walk along the beach here, at low tide. Then low tide, you can walk out onto the flat. But high tide it's mostly covered in water.>>>>Here is where Conner's body was recovered. The reason that this is dark on this chart is because that's those, it's a tidal flat. That means it's land in low tide, it's water in high tide.>>>>The body is found behind the jetty right here in this particular tidal flat. Next picture. This is a picture [People's 100] that was taken later, not on the day Conner's body was find, was taken to show you what the tidal flat looks like at high tide. You can see the residue line is just barely exposed. Come down, there is no waves breaking over the jetty, but this entire flat is covered with water at about, I think it's about a foot and half, two feet deep. 

After he and Dave Harris solicited the same blatantly incorrect information from three witnesses -- Michael Looby, Tod Opdyke, and Brian Gard, none of which are experts on water levels at the Conner Recovery Site, or even frequent visitors to the site -- Distaso said in his Closing Argument:

Remember that area where he came ashore is a tidal flat, so at high tide it's covered with water all the way. At low tide it's ground. He came ashore on a heavy storm surge. 

I was again at the Conner Recovery site on April 13, 2011, the 8th anniversary.  The photos I took again prove how ridiculously stupid it is for anyone to believe that this site is "covered with water all the way" at "high tide."

I arrived at the site at 7:13 a.m. to view the high tide predicted for that morning.  Here are the predicted water levels compared to the preliminary water levels.  The Accoustc column is the one to pay attention to, as that has proven to be a very accurate representation of verified water levels.  The high tide was predicted to peak at 8:06 a.m. and hold steady at 5.11' until dropping a mere .01' by 8:24.  The actual water level was just a bit higher -- 5.17 is .06' or 3/4 of an inch higher than 5.11' -- and peaked a bit later, at 8:30.  However, the water level at 8:06, the projected peak high tide, was only .01' lower than the actual peak, and .01' is a mere 1/8 of an inch.

Station Date      Time  Pred 6 Acoustc  Backup
DCP#:                        1       1       2
Units:                    Feet    Feet    Feet
Data%:  MLLW     Local  100.00  100.00  100.00  
Maximum:                  5.21    5.17    5.18  
Minimum:                  0.13    0.23    0.24  
------- -------- ----- ------- ------- ------- 

9414863 20110413 07:54    5.09    5.08    5.09
9414863 20110413 08:00    5.10    5.12    5.13
9414863 20110413 08:06    5.11    5.16    5.16
9414863 20110413 08:12    5.11    5.15    5.16
9414863 20110413 08:18    5.11    5.15    5.16
9414863 20110413 08:24    5.10    5.16    5.17
9414863 20110413 08:30    5.09    5.17    5.18
9414863 20110413 08:36    5.08    5.15    5.16
9414863 20110413 08:42    5.06    5.12    5.14
9414863 20110413 08:48    5.03    5.11    5.12

For the sake of those that are visiting the blog for the first time, or who, like me, have short memories, here are the water levels of significance to this case:

5.45' MHW (average of all H and HH tides
5.88' water level from HH tide on morning of April 13, 2003
6.05' MHHW (average of only the HH tides)
6.39' water level for People's 100

You can see that 5.17 is below the MHW of 5.45, well below the MHHW of 6.05, and very much below the People's 100 of 6.39.

First, let's view the digital photos taken from 8:16 - 8:18 a.m., with the water level at 5.15'.  They are of the south breakwater just in front of the grass section where Conner was found and then moving to the west.  You can see that the water from the tide is barely at the front of the rocks.

In the above photo, the rock we believed Gard measured from is in the right forefront. The turtle rock (named so because it has a shell-shape with a protrusion that looks like a turtle head) is to its left and just slightly in front of it.  

First People's 100, and then the next set of photos taken at 8:44-8:45 a.m., with the water level falling from 5.12' to 5.11'.  Interestingly, this was at the predicted water level for this high tide.  The photos take you full circle around the site.

The two faded-red flags you see in the photo above and below are the two possible locations where Conner was found.

The 3rd red flag shown in the photo above, and by itself in the photo below, is the location marked by Gard's GPS readings for the exact location Conner was found.

Some readers may wonder whether this high tide of only 5.17' is a fluke, out of the norm for this site.  I will provide objective evidence from the NOAA that this high tide is not a fluke in my next article.  And I am pleased to say that I was able to get onto the Bay side of the south breakwater to take photos from that perspective.  I also found some interesting debris both on the site and in the rocks -- more to look forward to.

Filing deadline extended to May 31, 2011

This was just posted this morning on the CA Appellate cases website.  The link is in the right column under Links to Related Sites.

4/11/2011

Extension of time granted

On application of appellant and good cause appearing, it is ordered that the time to serve and file appellant's opening brief is extended to and including May 31, 2011.

More problems for Amber . . .

I wonder if she ever wishes she would have just kept her mouth shut.

Scott Peterson Mistress Amber Frey Sued Over 'Memoirs of a Sex Addict,' 'Myths of the Flesh'

Failed theories -- the chicken wire

Some of the theories produced in this case are downright ridiculous.  One such theory is the chicken wire theory.  I've had a Fact Sheet up on SII for a very long time which gives all of the details of this theory, and how it was proven false.   I repost it here to refresh memories or to make it available to those who have not yet seen it.  

Roll of chicken wire

Collected on: December 27, 2002

Collected by:  Detective Dodge Hendee

Reason:  A hair wrapped around the pliers

Media Reports: 

Received by: 

Received on:  N/A

Case No:  CV-02-010941

Request No:  07

Tested by:  Sarah Yoshida, Sr. Criminalist

Bates No. for Report: N/A

Results: N/A

Initial Suspicion

The pliers were found in the bottom of the boat, under one of the seats.  Because they had a hair, they were thought to have been used to cut some wire that tied the anchors to Laci's body, specifically an anchor around the neck. 

Detective Grogan was immediately suspicious of the roll of chicken wire in Scott's truck, and on December 30, 2002, he asked Scott about it.  Scott told him he had recently purchased it to put around the trees and shrubs in the backyard to prevent the cats from scratching them.  Scott's answer made him more suspicious.

GROGAN: It seemed odd that, first of all, that it was in the truck.  And then when he told me that he had just bought it from Home Depot, he hadn't used it yet, if you look at the photographs, it's partially unwound. And it kind of has a jagged edge, or jagged cut on the outer edge. And then there is another wire attached to it.

From Geragos' cross-examination of Grogan, we find out that Scott told Grogan he had purchased the chicken wire about 2 weeks earlier, had it at the warehouse in his office, then decided to bring it home.  He told Grogan he had not yet used it.

On January 3, 2003, Grogan sent Detective Ron Reed to the Home Depot to see how it was packaged.  Under cross-examination by Geragos, Grogan admits that Reed went to both Lowe's and Home Depot and interviewed people.  At both stores, they cut the chicken wire in 25 and 50 foot lengths.  Detective Reed measured the roll of chicken wire from Scott's truck, and it measured 24.5 feet. 

The Working Theory

The MPD also theorized that Laci had been wrapped in the chicken wire. 

GERAGOS: Still in February, however, it was still this working theory that as of February 13th that Laci Peterson had been possibly wrapped in chicken wire, and that was something that information that was given to a Dr. Ralph Cheng; isn't that correct?

GROGAN: Yes, it appears to be accurate.

GERAGOS: Okay. That was one of the two possible theories. It was either four anchors at eight pounds each or wrapped in chicken wire or some form of plastic wrap, correct?

GROGAN: Yes.

GERAGOS: And Ralph Cheng is somebody who was hired or was retained or contacted by the prosecution in terms of trying to figure out where a body, if it was placed in the bay would be in the bay, correct?

GROGAN: He was contacted by Modesto Police Department, yes.

February 18-19 Search

On February 14, 2003, in a discussion with the Department of Justice, Grogan decided to have the tool mark comparison done, to determine if the pliers had been used to cut the chicken wire.

One of the purposes of the February 18-19 search of 523 Covena was to examine the trees and shrubs in the backyard, which Grogan did personally.  In fact, he included the trees and shrubs in the crime scene video. 

FLADAGER: During the course of the search warrant did you do an examination of trees in the back of the defendant's yard?

GROGAN: Yes.

FLADAGER: Why did you do that?

GROGAN: Because he, he had told, told us earlier that he had the chicken wire in his truck because he wanted to put it around the trees in his yard. So, and he said the purpose for that was because the cats were scratching the trees. I, so due to that, I examined all the trees and shrubs that they had in the backyard to see if that was in fact happening.

FLADAGER: And what did you determine?

GROGAN: I determined that there were several stakes and trees and shrubs in the backyard that had scratch marks on it and, in fact, much later when we were getting ready to leave from the search warrant I saw one of the cats scratching on one of the trees.

>>>>

FLADAGER: And, detective, let me ask you this, why did you think it was important to go ahead and videotape each and every one of these trees in the backyard?

GROGAN: That was something that the defendant had said and there was evidence there that showed that he was telling the truth on that; that those trees had been scratched by something.

FLADAGER: Any indication on any of these trees of chicken wire around them?

GROGAN: No.

Under cross-examination, Grogan noted specifically that 4 trees had scratch marks on them.

Exhibits

People's 116A, the chicken wire in the bed of the truck.  Defendants 6X 1-2 show the same.  Click to enlarge.

Test Results

Sarah Yoshida described her examination of both the pliers and the chicken wire.  The yellow-handled pliers were not used to cut the chicken wire.

HARRIS: Now, based on what you saw of these particular pliers, Modesto PD number 144, and depicted in 214 B, could you tell if those had been used to cut the chicken wire

YOSHIDA: No.

HARRIS: "No" you couldn't tell or "no," they weren't used to cut the chicken wire

YOSHIDA: They were not used to cut the chicken wire.

HARRIS: And how is it that you were able to determine that

YOSHIDA: Well, what I did, going back, I examined the cut ends of the chicken wire. I did not use these specific tools because I knew by looking at them that there had been change over time. There was no recent, as in no rust has been cleared from cutting anything,

HARRIS: Let me stop you there. What do you mean by that, that rust had not been cleared by cutting anything

YOSHIDA: Well, when you, when you have something that's rusted and you use it to cut something, some of that rust is going to get brushed away, so you're going to see clear areas on the cutting edge where the rust has been removed. So you're going to see metal, and what you can see in the photographs is all I could really see was rust all along the cutting surfaces. This is going to create change, any type of tool mark that I, test mark that I would have made. So what I did was I took tools that were similar to this in the laboratory and used them to cut some of the chicken wire. And the cuts that I made were nothing at all like what I observed at the end of the chicken wire. So the chicken wire was not even cut with a similar tool like these types of cutting surfaces.

HARRIS: Just to go back through this, break this down so that we all understand. When you use a tool to cut a piece of wire, like this chicken wire, does it leave some type of distinct impression or mark that you can look at?

JUDGE: Talking about on the tool or on the chicken wire?

HARRIS: Have her, On either one or both

YOSHIDA: It can be on either one or both. Sometimes it's a mark you can use, and sometimes it's a mark that you can't use.

HARRIS: Now, when we're talking about cutting the chicken wire, you use a tool to cut it, does it create a straight cut? Or angled cut? Or what was it that you found on the chicken wire

YOSHIDA: What I found on the chicken wire wasn't really a straight cut or a sharp angle cut. It appeared to be more of a shearing. It was more sheared than actual cut. It looked like it had been maybe, whatever tool was used on it maybe stretched and pulled a little bit before the ends actually broke apart from one another. But with the wire cutters, or with, excuse me, the needle-nosed pliers and its wire-cutting surfaces, the tool edges were very angular, and those are the types of marks I saw. So on the chicken wire I saw tented type cut, or cut ends on my test marks. But that's not what I saw on the chicken wire.

HARRIS: So in terms of the physical mechanics of how that worked, you were able to tell from looking at the test tool and the chicken wire that this type of tool was not the one that had cut the chicken wire

YOSHIDA: Correct.

HARRIS: So regardless of whether these were recently rusted or had been rusted over two months, this tool did not make that cut

YOSHIDA: Correct.

Yoshida confirmed that a pair of red-handled wire cutters, also collected as evidence, had not been used to cut the chicken wire.

HARRIS: Now, were you also given another pair of red handled pliers

YOSHIDA: I believe they were wire cutters.

HARRIS: Wire cutters. And your particular number for that was, 151 A is what it was identified as

YOSHIDA: Yes.

HARRIS: And so, again so that we're just talking about making sure it's the same, that we're all on the same page, these wire cutters, do they have the same type of mechanical properties of this particular pliers? Or is it something different

YOSHIDA: Similar. Looked like the pliers.

HARRIS: So it's, it's a pair of wire cutters which has mechanical function that comes together in some teeth or blade portions that squeezes the wire together

YOSHIDA: Correct.

HARRIS: Did you get that same kind of tent as you were describing it when you practiced a test cut with the wire cutters

YOSHIDA: Yes.

HARRIS: So with the two items that were provided by the Modesto Police Department, the red handled wire cutters and the 144, these yellow-handled pliers, those are not the items that cut that chicken wire

YOSHIDA: Correct.

Conclusion

Once again, even though the State's theories are proven wrong, the lead detective will not admit it:

GERAGOS: Okay. Now, specifically the fact of the matter is, as you sit here, though, today, there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever if you fast forward to the recovery of Laci Peterson's body the chicken wire had anything to do with anything, correct?

GROGAN: Well, there's no evidence that chicken wire was attached to her body that we had recovered, that's correct.

Yes, there is always some mythical evidence still out there that they just haven't been able to find.  Get over it, Detective Grogan, that mythical evidence exists nowhere but in your imagination.   

Heartwarming story of a dog protecting a toddler

Click here to read the story from Elgin, South Carolina or just watch this video.


The downside to the story is that bloodhounds didn't find the toddler after searching for hours, even though the toddler was just across the street in a backyard, having left a very direct and relatively short trail for the bloodhounds to track.

Scott's attorney files request for extension of time . . .

Scott's attorneys had a deadline of April 1, 2011 to file the first brief in the California Supreme Court direct appeal.  Yesterday, April 1, a request for an extension of time was filed.

So far, the Court has not responded to the request, but it would be highly unusual for it to be denied.  The only question is, what is the new deadline?

ModBee published a brief article about this, and as usual most of the comments were hate-filled and grossly inaccurate.  Two of the inaccuracies I noted just reading a half-dozen or so comments are:  1) the bodies were found in the same location where he went fishing, and 2) Scott used bleach to mop up and clean up.

First, the bodies weren't in the same place -- 2 miles away is not the same place.  More importantly, significant objective evidence proves the baby didn't even wash ashore, and that the baby hadn't been in utero since Dec 24. Evidence, obviously, that the hate-filled public doesn't want to admit exists.

Second, there was no smell of bleach and no indication whatsoever that bleach had been used, and no evidence whatsoever of a clean-up.  It's not only sad that so many think an innocent man is guilty of such a horrendous crime, but they don't even have correct information.

Come on hate-mongers, at least get your facts straight.